Melco Posts a Strong Quarter as Cyprus Flags Middle East Risk

Melco's Q1 came in clean across its Asian footprint: revenue of $1.37 billion (+11%), EBITDA of $381 million (+12%), and a $813 million City of Dreams Macau GGR print up 11% on the back of premium mass hold and non-gaming spend. Studio City held its own at $373 million in GGR with EBITDA up 15% as margins continue to expand and junket commissions burn down. City of Dreams Manila held steady against new Okada Manila capacity. The warning on the call was the Mediterranean: City of Dreams Mediterranean in Cyprus has been impacted by conflicts in the Middle East that began in late February, with arrivals at Larnaca and Paphos down 22% in March. Melco is reviewing the Cyprus marketing budget and the property's break-even is now pushed to Q1 2027.

Sands China: share gains and reinvestment discipline

Sands China posted Q1 net revenue of $2.11 billion (+23.6%) and market share of 24.4% — a two-year high and a full percentage point above the 2024 average. The rare combination is what made JP Morgan notice: Sands is taking share while reducing mass reinvestment by roughly 100 basis points. Property EBITDA of $633 million (+18.3%) holds despite the lower reinvestment rate. The Londoner Macao room inventory is now fully online; The Venetian and The Londoner together account for 62% of Sands China GGR. The playbook mirrors Singapore — premium positioning with disciplined reinvestment — and further share gains are likely as the renovation cycle completes in the third quarter.

Vietnam: Ho Tram opens to locals

Grand Ho Tram began admitting Vietnamese nationals on January 5 under the 2017 pilot programme — the second casino after Phu Quoc's Corona to operate that way. All betting has been converted from USD to dong, eliminating forex risk for local players. The Ministry of Finance has confirmed that the $2 billion Van Don project broke ground in December, with a casino targeted for 2028. A decree expanding the pilot to three additional venues is in draft for cabinet review in the third quarter. The numbers are small today but the signal is large: 100 million population, a rising middle class, and limited legal gambling options. Sun Group, Vingroup and several foreign operators are circling through joint ventures.

Philippines: PAGCOR digests the POGO ban

PAGCOR's full-year 2025 revenue was P106.03 billion, down 5.09% — the first decline since 2020. Gaming operations alone landed at P95.15 billion (-2.4%). The POGO ban effective January 2025 removed P12–15 billion in annual licensee fees, and that hole has not yet been filled. The structural shift is more telling than the headline: e-games revenue surged 82.67% to P114.83 billion in H1 2025 and now represents 53% of total gaming revenue. PIGO licences for domestic online play are the new growth engine. The regulatory arbitrage of POGOs serving China is closed; what remains is a taxed, geo-fenced domestic online market.

South Korea: Kangwon Land's monopoly economics deteriorate

Kangwon Land — the only Korean casino open to locals — posted Q1 net profit of KRW39.67 billion despite 8.3% top-line growth. Costs are outpacing revenue: labour negotiations added 12% to wage expense, renovation depreciation has kicked in, and pre-opening costs for the second casino (H1 2028) are running at KRW8 billion per quarter. A KRW200 billion renovation programme is adding near-term pressure, and the government-mandated social contribution fund was raised to 55% of gross revenue in January. The dual mandate of profit and social welfare rarely optimises for either, and Kangwon Land is the live case study.

Sources

Melco Resorts 10-Q; JP Morgan Asia Gaming Research Note; Vietnam Ministry of Finance Decree 03/2026; PAGCOR Annual Report 2025; Kangwon Land Q1 Earnings Release.