Part III: Slot Machine Cheating · Electronic & Digital Cheating Methods · #6.20
The Near-Miss Myth
How it works
A near-miss is a display in which jackpot symbols stop just off the payline. Ontario’s 2007 slot standards allowed that kind of display up to 12 times more often than by chance alone. It is a design feature, not a signal. Research finds a near-miss no more informative about the next result than any other loss, because each outcome is independent. Treating the pattern as a way to know when a machine is due is a myth.
Where it appears
Reel-based slot machines in jurisdictions where near-miss programming is permitted (Ontario’s 2007 standards set a limit on near-misses and researchers report that Nevada’s standards allow them)
On the record
Ontario’s Electronic Gaming Machine Minimum Technical Standards (AGCO 2007) allowed jackpot symbols to appear just above or below the payline up to 12 times, on average, for every time they appear on it. Research by Harrigan (2007b, 2009) documented that similar programming is allowed in Nevada. Skinner (1953) first noted the psychological effect of near-misses in gambling devices. Brain-imaging studies have found that near-misses activate reward-related brain areas, including dopamine-rich regions, in a similar way to wins, creating a powerful conditioning effect.
Detection & preventionADVISORY
The paid halfHow a monitoring room catches the near-miss myth, and what stops it recurring, written for the desk, not the reader.
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Published as a detection reference for surveillance, compliance and gaming-operations professionals. Thresholds and tuning are set by the property. Nothing here is instruction: the method is described so it can be recognised.